Bitcoin price dips 14% in August as trader warns of ‘macro drop down’
By closing the monthly candle down 13.9% lower than the previous month, Bitcoin (BTC) confirmed its worst August performance since 2015.
Data shows that the BTC/USD exchange rate ended the month at $19,990.
The August closing was only the second monthly candle finish below the $20,000 threshold (depending on the exchange used) since late 2020, undermining bulls' attempts to maintain the current price.
Although the performance kept June's close as the macro low on the monthly chart, it sent traders into a decidedly negative zone. Crypto Tony was one among them, and he foresaw the potential for further losses in the future.
He tweeted that day that his outlook had him "leaning towards a macro dip down."
Caleb Franzen, senior market analyst at Cubic Analytics, added that the first weekly candle of September is already shaping up to take Bitcoin further into the red.
“The weekly candle for Bitcoin doesn’t look good, though it’s still very early in the week,” he warned alongside an explanatory chart.
“The long top wick and selloff is objectively a bad sign, if it closes this way. Particularly if it turns into a red candle. Something to watch for the rest of the week.”
Others saw more optimistic implications in the monthly close.
Popular Twitter account Dave the wave highlighted moving average convergence/ divergence (MACD) as having predicted the comedown from local highs above $25,000 and now conversely favoring relief for bulls.
Fellow trader Johal Miles reiterated the potentially bullish knock-on effect of an MACD cross from mid-August, one which nonetheless had seen “no continuation yet.”
One on-chain indicator in particular meanwhile reinforced the feeling that current BTC price levels are for accumulating, not selling.
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Bitcoin’s Realized Value Hodl (RHODL) ratio, which measures the relative value of coins moving in recent weeks compared to one or two years prior, now sits at its lowest ever.
The dubious achievement was noticed by Philip Swift, creator of on-chain data resource LookIntoBitcoin.
“RHODL Ratio is now at historical lows. Indicating near-term prices paid for $BTC are relatively low to those paid 1-2yrs ago,” he explained.
“Useful way of identifying sentiment via actual behavior. Shows market is v.bearish bitcoin right now. Accumulate.”