Tinubu, the candidate of the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), was declared the winner of Nigeria’s presidential election on March 1, 2023, according to Fitch. Despite opposition parties calling for a re-run of the presidential election, Fitch believes that the chances of this happening are slim. The report states that reduced trust in the electoral process and Tinubu’s weak political mandate would increase social unrest in the immediate term.
The report notes that Tinubu received just 36.6% of the national vote, the first time since the return of democracy in 1999 that a president has been elected with less than 50% of the vote, and the lowest share received by an election winner since 1979. Opposition figures had criticised the conduct of the vote and were demanding that the election be re-run. International observers had not described the vote as rigged but had reported that the election was characterised by operational failures and a lack of transparency.
Opposition parties had been particularly critical that INEC did not post individual polling station figures to a website meant to ensure transparency. A coalition of opposition parties led by PDP and LP had already called for the cancellation and re-run of the election. However, INEC officials have stated that allegations of electoral fraud were “unfounded and irresponsible” and that the results point to “a free, fair and credible process.”
Fitch expects protests to take place over the short term, particularly in urban areas, such as Lagos, stressing that the Labour Party drew significant support from members of the #EndSars protest movement, which launched a series of protests in the commercial capital in 2020. Since several pre-election polls showed the Labour Party’s candidate winning the vote, Fitch expects the party’s youthful supporters will likely be dissatisfied with the result. It is also possible that the Labour Party and PDP may boycott or disrupt the gubernatorial elections scheduled for March 11 2023.
Fitch has lowered Nigeria’s Social Stability score in its proprietary Short-Term Political Risk Index (STPRI) to 17.5 out of 100, from 25.0 previously, which brings Nigeria’s overall STPRI from 42.1 to 40.2. Fitch further forecasts that inflation will average 18% in 2023, and Tinubu’s weak political mandate would discourage him from implementing substantial economic reforms in the short term. Given divisions within the legislature, widespread political opposition, and concerns about the president-elect’s health, Fitch expects a prolonged political stasis.