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The Dangote Petroleum Refinery has raised the ex-depot price of Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) to ₦880 per litre, signalling a potential surge in retail pump prices across Nigeria and intensifying concerns over fuel affordability.
The new pricing, confirmed by a Pro Forma Invoice reviewed by Prime9jaOnline and data from petroleumprice.ng, reflects a ₦55 increase from the previous rate of ₦825 per litre. This development could push pump prices beyond ₦900/litre in several regions, especially areas distant from key supply hubs.
The price adjustment comes despite a downward trend in global crude oil benchmarks. On Friday, Brent crude fell by 3.02% to $76.47 per barrel, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) dropped to $74.93, and Murban crude declined to $76.97. Analysts suggest that despite falling crude prices, refinery operational costs, exchange rate volatility, and supply chain uncertainties continue to drive domestic fuel pricing.
Speaking on Thursday, Dangote Group President, Aliko Dangote, revealed that the 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery has increased reliance on imported U.S. crude due to inadequate local supply. He made this disclosure during a meeting with the Technical Committee of the One-Stop Shop for the sale of crude and refined products in naira initiative.
The refinery is projected to import approximately 17.65 million barrels of crude between April and July 2025, with around 3.65 million barrels already delivered. The imports fall under the Federal Government’s naira-for-crude policy, introduced to support local refining efforts.
Meanwhile, the President of the Petroleum and Natural Gas Senior Staff Association of Nigeria (PENGASSAN), Festus Osifo, criticised the persistent high retail prices, despite declining global crude benchmarks. He argued that petrol should currently retail between ₦700 and ₦750 per litre, based on international pricing models and foreign exchange calculations.
“If you go online and check the PLAT cost per cubic metre of PMS, convert that to litres and then to our Naira, you will see that with crude at around $60 per barrel, petrol should be retailing between ₦700 and ₦750 per litre,” Osifo said.
He added that Nigerian consumers should benefit from lower prices when crude markets drop, just as they bear the burden when prices rise.
The latest increase has already sparked a response among fuel marketers. Distributors and depot operators in Lagos and other major cities are reportedly adjusting prices upward in anticipation of broader industry alignment with the Dangote refinery’s pricing. Earlier in the week, a temporary halt in sales and withholding of fresh Pro Forma Invoices by the refinery created uncertainty, contributing to speculative markups in the market.
Industry experts continue to monitor the evolving dynamics, warning that unless domestic supply stabilises and exchange rate pressures ease, further fluctuations in petrol pricing may persist.