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Despite ramped-up local refining capacity, Nigeria imported about 15.01 billion litres of petrol between August 2024 and early October 2025, accounting for 69 per cent of the total national supply of 21.68 billion litres during the 15-month period.
This is according to the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA) report titled “Import vs Domestic Supply Performance (PMS Daily Average Supply – August 2024 to October 2025)”, which provides insight into the ongoing transition in Nigeria’s petrol supply structure.
The figures indicate that 6.67 billion litres, representing 31 per cent, were supplied from domestic refining, largely driven by the Dangote Refinery, which began petrol production in September 2024.
Petrol Imports Declining as Local Production Rises
According to the NMDPRA, petrol imports averaged 44.60 million litres per day in August 2024, peaking at 54.30 million litres in September 2024—around the time Dangote began supplying PMS to the local market.
Since then, imports have declined steadily, falling to 24.15 million litres per day in January 2025, 19.26 million litres in September 2025, and 15.11 million litres during the first 10 days of October 2025.
Conversely, domestic refining grew rapidly, with output increasing from 6.43 million litres per day in September 2024 to 22.66 million litres in January 2025. By October 2025, the Dangote Refinery was producing an average of 18.93 million litres daily, surpassing import volumes for the first time.
Fluctuating Supply and Declining Consumption
The total national supply of petrol peaked at 60.73 million litres per day in September 2024, then dropped to 44.08 million litres in April 2025 and 34.04 million litres in October 2025.
These fluctuations reflect both import availability and changes in domestic refinery operations. Notably, daily petrol consumption declined from 60.73 million litres in September 2024 to 34.04 million litres by October 2025, indicating lower national demand following fuel subsidy removal in September 2024.
Marketers, Dangote Clash Over Pricing and Competition
While the Dangote Refinery continues to ramp up production, it faces stiff competition from independent fuel importers, some of whom have accused Aliko Dangote of destabilising the market through frequent price cuts.
The refinery, however, maintains that it has sufficient capacity to meet both domestic and export demand, with over 310 million litres of PMS currently in storage.
“I have more than 310 million litres of PMS as of today inside my tanks, apart from the production which is coming out every day. Bring your tankers, we will load. Any number of tankers you bring, we’ll load,” said Devakumar Edwin, Vice President of the Dangote Group.
Dangote Refinery Expands Exports Amid Global Supply Tightness
Beyond the domestic market, the $20 billion Lekki-based refinery has been exporting petrol, aviation fuel, and diesel to countries including the United States and Saudi Arabia.
In February 2025, Dangote confirmed the export of two cargoes of aviation fuel to Saudi Aramco, marking a major milestone for the facility. Between June and July 2025, the refinery exported up to one million tonnes of petrol, according to company data.
A Dangote refinery official, who spoke anonymously, said:
“We export PMS, diesel, and aviation fuel. The refinery is fully operational and participating actively in international markets.”
NMDPRA Confirms Refinery’s Growing Role
The Chief Executive of NMDPRA, Farouk Ahmed, affirmed that the Dangote Refinery now contributes an average of 20 million litres of petrol daily to the local market, a figure expected to increase as operations scale up.
“Without a shadow of a doubt, the operation of the 650,000-barrel-per-day Dangote Refinery has changed the supply dynamics, with an average daily contribution of up to 20 million litres,” Ahmed said.
Nigeria’s Path Toward Fuel Independence
The data highlights a gradual shift toward self-sufficiency in Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector. Although imports still dominate the national supply mix, the rise in domestic refining marks a crucial step toward reducing dependence on foreign fuel.
However, experts note that challenges such as market competition, pricing regulations, and distribution logistics must be resolved for local refineries to dominate fully.
With the Dangote Refinery’s growing output and declining import volumes, Nigeria appears to be entering a new era of energy transition, characterized by stronger local production, reduced import dependence, and improved market stability.