Nigeria’s headline inflation rate eased to 18.02 percent in September 2025, down from 20.12 percent in August, marking the sixth consecutive month of decline and the first time in three years that inflation has fallen below the 20 percent mark.
The latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) report released on Wednesday by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) attributed the continued disinflation trend partly to the rebasing of the CPI, which has influenced the moderation of inflation this year. The development also led to the first interest rate cut in years by the Central Bank of Nigeria’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC).
According to the report, headline inflation decreased by 2.1 percentage points compared to August 2025. Year-on-year, inflation fell sharply by 14.68 percentage points from 32.70 percent in September 2024, reflecting a substantial slowdown in price pressures.
On a month-on-month basis, inflation stood at 0.72 percent, marginally lower than 0.74 percent in August, indicating a slower pace of price increases.
Food and Core Inflation Trends
The food inflation rate fell to 16.87 percent year-on-year in September, down by 20.9 percentage points from 37.77 percent in September 2024. The NBS noted that this decline was “technically due to the change in the base year.”
Month-on-month, food inflation dropped by 1.57 percent, compared to 1.65 percent in August, largely due to lower average prices of maize, garri, beans, millet, potatoes, onions, eggs, tomatoes, and fresh pepper.
Core inflation—which excludes volatile items like food and energy—stood at 19.53 percent, down from 27.43 percent in September 2024. Month-on-month, core inflation slipped slightly to 1.42 percent from 1.43 percent in August.
Urban and Rural Inflation
Urban inflation rose marginally month-on-month by 0.25 percentage points to 0.74 percent, while rural inflation dipped to 18.26 percent year-on-year and 0.67 percent month-on-month.
State-by-State Analysis
On a year-on-year basis, Adamawa (23.69%), Katsina (23.53%), and Nasarawa (22.29%) recorded the highest headline inflation rates, while Anambra (9.28%), Niger (11.79%), and Bauchi (12.36%) had the lowest.
Month-on-month, Zamfara (9.36%), Adamawa (8.15%), and Nasarawa (7.49%) saw the steepest increases, while Niger (-8.14%), Oyo (-5.56%), and Bayelsa (-4.61%) recorded declines.
For food inflation, Ekiti (28.68%), Rivers (24.18%), and Nasarawa (22.74%) posted the highest rates, while Bauchi (2.81%), Niger (8.38%), and Anambra (8.41%) had the lowest.
Expert Reactions
Analysts have described the continued moderation in inflation as a positive signal for monetary policy and economic stability.
Lukman Otunuga, Senior Research Analyst at FXTM, projected earlier that inflation could ease to around 18.8 percent, citing “a combination of softer food prices and a strengthening naira” as key drivers. He added that the trend “may pave the way for further rate cuts by the CBN in November.”
Experts at Arthur Steven Asset Management echoed similar sentiments, noting that the disinflation streak “strengthens expectations of another rate cut at the next MPC meeting.”
In its Inflation Watch, AIICO Capital highlighted that the decline reflects “the positive impact of government policy reforms,” including the CPI rebasing, stable energy prices, and a 2.9 percent naira appreciation in September — its strongest level in 15 months.
The firm noted that the 50 basis point reduction in the Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) to 27 percent in September, combined with falling inflation now nearing the 15 percent budget benchmark, “signals potential for further easing in monetary policy before year-end.”
However, analysts cautioned that sustaining the downward trend will require policy discipline, strengthened food security measures, and continued energy stability to guard against future volatility.