Petrol prices in Nigeria could rise to about ₦1,400 per litre in the coming days as fuel marketers anticipate a fresh price adjustment from the Dangote Refinery amid rising global crude oil prices and supply uncertainties.
According to industry sources cited by Arise News, fuel loading activities at the refinery had reportedly been paused, fuelling expectations that a new ex-depot price could be announced soon. The development has heightened concerns across the downstream sector about another potential spike in pump prices.
The situation follows a sharp increase in international crude prices linked to the escalating conflict in the Middle East. Brent crude has climbed to roughly $85 per barrel, while Nigeria’s Bonny Light crude is trading above $83 per barrel.
Officials within the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria (PETROAN) confirmed that no petrol was lifted from the refinery on Sunday, further intensifying speculation about an imminent revision in wholesale prices.
However, the Dangote Group has rejected claims that product loading had been halted. The company’s Chief Corporate Communications Officer, Anthony Chiejina, dismissed the reports, describing them as “nonsense” and maintaining that pricing decisions would reflect prevailing global market conditions.
Current Pricing Trends
Retail fuel prices in Lagos currently average between ₦1,150 and ₦1,157 per litre. Data from the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria (MEMAN) shows that ex-depot prices have been fluctuating between ₦940 and ₦1,000 per litre.
Industry analysts say the volatility reflects broader global developments, particularly disruptions affecting crude oil supply and shipping routes amid tensions involving Iran and other regional actors.
Global Factors Driving Local Prices
Speaking on Arise News, the National President of PETROAN, Billy Gillis-Harry, said developments in the Middle East are a key factor shaping price trends in Nigeria.
He explained that the outcome of decisions by multiple global actors would influence the direction of the oil market. “President Trump's decision is very germanine and key in how this will develop. But he's not alone. The Iranians also have their say, the Israelis have their say, and even other Middle Eastern countries also have their say and the actions.”
Gillis-Harry noted that the combined effect of these geopolitical actions has contributed to the current uncertainty in energy markets.
Nigeria’s Exposure to Global Shocks
Despite being an oil-producing country, Nigeria remains vulnerable to fluctuations in international energy markets because crude oil and refined petroleum products are traded globally.
Gillis-Harry said the impact of volatile prices is not limited to Nigeria. “Crude oil that is a feed stock talk of how refined products are made and sent to the market is an internationally traded commodity and it volatility affects either by lower prices or higher prices.”
He explained that higher crude prices increase the cost of replacing fuel stocks, which in turn drives up domestic pump prices.
The PETROAN president also defended the operations of the Dangote Refinery, noting that pricing decisions are largely shaped by market forces.
Calls for Energy Diversification
Gillis-Harry urged Nigeria to accelerate its transition toward alternative energy sources in order to reduce reliance on petrol.
He said broader adoption of compressed natural gas (CNG) and electric vehicles could help cushion the impact of fuel price volatility.
“If the gas revolution that was started almost a decade ago in Nigeria was in traction as it is today… the CNG penetration strategies would have been much more successful,” he said.
According to him, greater investment in gas infrastructure and electric vehicle charging networks could have reduced the severity of the current situation.
Possible Government Interventions
The PETROAN leader suggested that the federal government may need to introduce targeted measures to ease the burden on Nigerians.
He said transport costs should receive urgent attention because fuel price increases often trigger wider inflation in food and other essential goods.
“Let us look at how to intervene in providing very quick intervention on transportation as that will easily and quickly intervene into make sure that food price does not escalate,” he said.
Gillis-Harry also urged transport operators to avoid exploiting commuters during the period of price instability.
Local Refining Capacity
Industry stakeholders have repeatedly called for improvements in Nigeria’s domestic refining sector as a way to reduce dependence on imported fuel and mitigate the effects of global shocks.
Gillis-Harry said stronger local refining capacity, including operational state-owned refineries and additional private facilities, could provide greater stability in the long term.
He also stressed the importance of collaboration between private sector investors and government agencies in strengthening the downstream petroleum industry.
Outlook for Consumers
While some diplomatic signals suggest the possibility of easing tensions in the Middle East, Gillis-Harry warned that the outlook remains uncertain.
He said the direction of global oil prices will depend heavily on whether the conflict escalates or de-escalates.
“If it deescalates is going to impact positively on how our prices and our production capacity will be. If it escalates then the fear that we might be heading towards buying petroleum product at about 1,92,000 will be there,” he said.