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| Harry Kane |
Harry Kane leads Polymarket’s predictions for the 2026 men’s Ballon d’Or, ahead of Barcelona forward Lamine Yamal and Real Madrid striker Kylian Mbappé, as the award ceremony approaches in London.
Figures displayed on Polymarket’s winner market on Wednesday, 21 October, put Kane’s implied probability at approximately 74 per cent. Yamal followed at 19.8 per cent, while Mbappé stood at 3.9 per cent.
Those percentages reflect prices generated by participants buying and selling shares in possible outcomes. Trading can change the probabilities, which express market expectations of the result. France Football determines the winner through a separate vote by an international jury of journalists.
The organisers’ published assessment period runs from 3 August 2025 to 19 July 2026, covering the previous club season and international competitions, including the World Cup.
Kane’s record during the campaign included 73 goals and eight assists in 65 appearances for Bayern Munich and England, according to the Bundesliga’s statistical review. He scored 61 of those goals in 51 club matches, with another 12 coming on international duty.
Bayern won the Bundesliga, German Cup and German Super Cup during the season. Kane also collected the European Golden Shoe after scoring 36 league goals, while his six goals at the World Cup helped England finish third.
Yamal enters the contest with domestic honours and a World Cup title. Barcelona’s official player profile credits the winger with 24 club goals during 2025/26, when the Catalan side won La Liga and the Spanish Super Cup.
The 19-year-old also received La Liga’s player of the season award before joining Spain’s successful World Cup campaign.
Mbappé scored 40 goals in 42 appearances across La Liga and the Champions League for Real Madrid.
He subsequently finished as the World Cup’s leading scorer with 10 goals. FIFA’s tournament review confirms that the French forward won the Golden Boot and increased his career total at the finals to a record 22 goals.
The 30-player shortlist also includes Kane’s Bayern teammate Michael Olise and Inter Miami forward Lionel Messi. Paris Saint-Germain players occupy 10 places, including defending winner Ousmane Dembélé, Achraf Hakimi, Vitinha and Khvicha Kvaratskhelia.
Under France Football’s regulations, individual performances carry the greatest weight in assessing candidates. Team performances and trophies follow, with conduct and fair play forming the third criterion.
The men’s jury comprises specialist journalists representing the 100 highest-ranked countries in the applicable FIFA standings. Each juror ranks ten nominees, who receive points according to their positions on the ballot. The player with the highest combined total wins.
UEFA has confirmed that the London Palladium will host the ceremony on Monday, 26 October, beginning at 8pm GMT, or 9pm Nigerian time.
The 70th edition brings the ceremony to London for the first time. Organisers chose the city to honour England’s Stanley Matthews, who received the inaugural Ballon d’Or in 1956.