 |
| President Bola Tinubu, whose party has outlined its proposed programme for 2027–2031. Nosa Asemota/Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. |
The All Progressives Congress has proposed six per cent annual economic growth and available electricity generation approaching 10,000 megawatts by 2031, alongside promises to halve youth unemployment and the number of children outside the school system.
The commitments form part of President Bola Tinubu’s proposed programme for a second term. The 109-page presidential election manifesto, titled From Reform to Prosperity Agenda 2027–2031, sets out the party’s priorities ahead of the 2027 election.
Reviewing the proposals during Arise News’ business update on Tuesday, correspondent Rotus Oddiri questioned how the party intended to achieve its growth and electricity targets and which statistics it would use to measure progress on youth employment.
He described the economic projections as more restrained than some of the administration’s earlier ambitions, while arguing that the figures still required scrutiny.
Oddiri contrasted the proposed six per cent growth rate by 2031 with the administration’s earlier ambition of reaching seven per cent by 2027. He expressed doubt about the earlier timetable and pointed to forecasts placing Nigeria’s growth around four per cent this year.
In his assessment, reaching the new target would require a substantial increase in oil production and a stronger contribution from the petroleum sector.
The party’s programme also includes a non-oil export target. A summary published by Proshare and attributed to APC Nigeria sets annual non-oil exports of at least $15 billion among its objectives, alongside improvements in security, living standards, infrastructure and public administration.
Oddiri also drew attention to the administration’s previously stated ambition of building a $1 trillion economy by 2030. He said he had not encountered that commitment in the portions of the new manifesto he had read.
His observation concerned his review of the document; he did not identify a formal announcement withdrawing the earlier ambition.
Electricity supply formed another part of his assessment. Oddiri questioned the route to the proposed 10,000MW target, arguing that stating a generation figure did not explain how the party intended to deliver it.
The manifesto links its electricity proposals to wider metering coverage, stronger transmission and distribution networks, and expanded clean energy access for communities with limited supply. Those commitments accompany its pledge to increase the power available to households and businesses.
On employment, Oddiri questioned the starting point for the promise to halve youth unemployment. He contrasted Nigeria’s former labour statistics with the lower unemployment figures produced under the National Bureau of Statistics’ revised survey methodology.
That distinction affects how figures from different periods can be compared.
Under the NBS methodology, a person who worked for pay or profit for at least one hour during the preceding seven days falls within the employed category. The threshold does not establish that the person holds a full-time job.
The survey separately measures time-related underemployment. This covers employed people who worked fewer than 40 hours a week and were willing and available to work additional hours.
The bureau also cautions against constructing a continuous trend by directly comparing its earlier and revised labour surveys. Changes to the questionnaire, sampling arrangements and collection procedures affect comparability between the two series.
Oddiri’s criticism centred on identifying which measure the APC would use when assessing its promised reduction. He questioned whether the pledge referred to the older statistics or the revised framework.
The education proposals include cutting the number of out-of-school children by half by 2031. The party also plans to recruit and train 20,000 additional teachers, with priority for female educators and communities with inadequate staffing.
Other household commitments extend to housing and healthcare. The manifesto proposes facilitating 200,000 affordable homes through a combination of housing schemes, mortgage financing and partnerships with licensed developers.
It also targets functional services at 90 per cent of primary healthcare centres and active health insurance coverage for 40 per cent of Nigerians by 2031.
The APC presents these proposals as the next stage of its economic programme, with an emphasis on converting reforms into improvements in household living conditions.
Its published summary also provides for measurable commitments and public reporting arrangements to track implementation across the proposed term.