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| Attendants at a TOTAL petrol station in Ilorin, Kwara State, on 15 November 2017. File photograph. Jamie Tubers / Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0. |
ATMIN chief executive Ajay Oommen has urged African governments to use existing tax revenues to support households and businesses struggling with higher fuel costs, while opposing a windfall tax on energy companies benefiting from the Iran war.
Speaking on Arise News’ Morning Show, Oommen said Nigeria should strengthen fuel storage, expand refining capacity and improve access to foreign exchange as part of its response to disruptions in international energy markets.
He argued that these measures would help countries maintain supplies while directing assistance towards vulnerable families and small businesses that depend on diesel.
Prime 9ja Online reports that Oommen’s proposals address the competing effects of higher oil prices on African economies: producers can earn more from crude sales, while consumers and businesses face higher costs for petroleum products.
For Nigeria, he said, increasing production and retaining more value through domestic processing would improve the country’s ability to benefit from stronger crude prices.
Nigeria’s 2026 budget assumptions include an oil-price benchmark of $64.85 a barrel and production of 1.84 million barrels a day, according to official government figures.
Oommen said the Dangote refinery had helped Nigeria maintain fuel availability despite rising prices. He contrasted that position with supply difficulties in some other African countries, where inadequate refining capacity had contributed to queues and pressure on consumers.
He identified foreign-exchange constraints, insufficient strategic reserves and limited refining capacity as three weaknesses governments needed to address.
In his assessment, countries that export crude but depend on imported fuels expose themselves to disruptions elsewhere in the production and transport chain. He said that dependence meant Africa “imports other people's risk”.
Oommen favoured targeted support financed from taxes governments already collect. He called a windfall tax “not a good idea”, arguing that additional levies could discourage investment by producers and refiners.
He said exploration and production companies commit capital to risky projects, while refinery developers also require incentives to expand capacity. Governments, he argued, should preserve those investment incentives while helping consumers manage immediate costs.
Oil producers, tanker owners and refiners had benefited from the disruption, he said, citing higher crude prices, freight charges and refining margins.
He estimated that transporting a barrel of oil from West Africa to Europe, which previously cost about $2, had risen to between $6 and $8. He also cited refining margins reaching $45 a barrel.
“So the consumers are the ones who are paying for it.”
The discussion followed a New York Times analysis, republished by GV Wire, which estimated that more than 50 large US oil and gas companies earned over $130 billion in combined profits between April and September 2026. The report put their earnings for the corresponding period of 2025 below $47 billion.
On financing Africa’s response, Oommen pointed to Afreximbank’s support for energy imports, infrastructure and refining.
The bank’s announced Gulf Crisis Response Programme provides a $10 billion framework to help African and Caribbean economies manage the conflict’s effects. In its April announcement, Afreximbank said the programme would provide foreign exchange and liquidity for essential imports, alongside financing for producers and infrastructure projects.
Separately, Afreximbank underwrote $2.5 billion of a $4 billion syndicated loan for Dangote Petroleum Refinery and Petrochemicals. Afreximbank and Access Bank jointly arranged the five-year facility to consolidate existing financing and restructure the refinery’s funding, according to the bank’s 31 March announcement.
Oommen described ATMIN as majority-owned by Afreximbank and said its purpose included retaining more of the value generated by trading African commodities within the continent.
He said commodity trading had historically directed substantial value towards centres such as London and Geneva. Retaining more of that activity in Africa, he argued, could support financing, infrastructure and trade between African countries.
“Why can't it be captured back into Africa?”
According to Oommen, ATMIN handled more than $3 billion in trade during its first year of trading. He said the company expected to expand its activities with Afreximbank’s support.
He also outlined how the company could work with smaller Nigerian oil producers that struggle to finance production, move crude from their fields and assemble commercially viable shipments.
Using a marginal-field operator producing about 3,000 barrels a day as an example, he said smaller producers needed help pooling output into larger cargoes and securing buyers.
He identified financing, evacuation, aggregation and monetisation as the stages at which ATMIN and Afreximbank could participate. In practical terms, he said, this involved providing capital, arranging transport, combining production and finding markets.
Oommen linked that approach to the objectives of former Afreximbank president Benedict Oramah, whom he credited with supporting a platform to finance smaller producers and retain commodity-trading value in Africa.
He said operators holding field licences could also work with ATMIN and Afreximbank on financing and risk management. ATMIN’s published description of its activities includes marketing and moving production from Afreximbank-financed projects, alongside developing terminals, storage facilities and other logistics infrastructure.
Turning to international prices, Oommen said fuel-market pressures could persist into the middle of 2027, even if diplomatic progress reduced the immediate disruption.
His assessment came as Morgan Stanley forecast that petroleum-product markets would remain tight through mid-2027, partly because of refinery maintenance, according to Bloomberg’s reporting.
Oommen said governments would eventually need to rebuild reserves depleted during the crisis. The pace of those purchases, he argued, could sustain demand after shipping conditions improved.
The International Energy Agency said in its 7 October update that members had released approximately 325 million barrels under their March emergency action. It said they still held about 1.1 billion barrels of publicly controlled emergency stocks, including more than 200 million barrels of diesel.
Oommen nevertheless expected a sustained improvement in shipping access to ease prices over time. He identified the Strait of Hormuz and Bab el-Mandeb as important routes whose disruption had complicated the movement of energy supplies.
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| The Strait of Hormuz, pictured from space on 24 March 2021. File image. NASA Johnson Space Center / Wikimedia Commons. Public-domain US government image. |
The IEA estimates that approximately 20 million barrels of crude and petroleum products passed through Hormuz each day in 2025, representing about a quarter of global seaborne oil trade. Its assessment of the waterway also notes the limited capacity available to divert exports through alternative routes.
Asked about further military escalation, Oommen warned that more severe restrictions on shipping could drive prices higher. His expectation of lower prices depended on diplomacy succeeding and oil moving more freely.
He estimated that the crisis had reduced global oil demand by between 1.6 million and two million barrels a day. Combined with substantial production capacity, he said, that reduction could leave the market well supplied once transport restrictions eased.
Under a sustained peace scenario, Oommen said he expected oil prices to settle around $70 a barrel. He presented that figure as a conditional outlook, dependent on restored flows and greater stability.
On the US midterm elections, he expressed hope that the political outcome would create more room for diplomacy over Iran. He noted that the incoming Congress would not begin its term until early 2027.
Looking further ahead, Oommen argued that production growth outside OPEC+ would limit the alliance’s influence over the market.
He cited the United Arab Emirates’ departure from OPEC and OPEC+ as one development weakening the group’s supply-management position. The UAE announced its withdrawal in April, with effect from 1 May 2026.
He also pointed to US production and expanding supplies from Guyana and Suriname as factors that could increase availability over the longer term.
If peace held and additional production reached the market, Oommen said, supply could eventually exceed demand, creating scope for a substantial fall in prices by 2028.