 |
| DAGFA spokesperson Niyi Sodipo discusses President Bola Tinubu’s proposed second-term programme on Arise News. Arise News, video thumbnail. |
A support group for President Bola Tinubu has urged Nigerians to allow more time for his economic reforms to improve household incomes, while acknowledging that many families continue to face hardship despite improvements in national economic indicators.
Niyi Sodipo, spokesperson for the Data Analytics Group for Asiwaju (DAGFA), made the appeal during an appearance on Arise News’ Daybreak, where presenters questioned the funding and delivery of the administration’s proposed second-term programme.
Sodipo argued that policies introduced since 2023 had helped stabilise the economy, but said the next task was to turn that stability into business expansion, employment and better living conditions.
He described macroeconomic reforms as “a means to an end not the end itself” and maintained that the government still needed to do more before Nigerians could experience the benefits beyond published figures.
His defence followed Tuesday’s presentation of the All Progressives Congress manifesto for the 2027 presidential election. The programme sets targets covering security, economic growth, housing, electricity and public services through 2031.
Much of the interview centred on the distance between the administration’s economic claims and the circumstances of low-income households.
Asked what he would say to Nigerians who had yet to benefit from the reforms, Sodipo acknowledged their difficulties. He argued that sustained stability would eventually help businesses obtain finance, expand operations and employ more workers.
He cited a World Bank assessment that poverty had stabilised, while accepting that stabilisation did not mean poverty had fallen.
The World Bank’s October 2026 assessment reported that poverty had stopped rising after successive increases since 2019. It nevertheless stressed that poverty remained high and that better jobs, higher real incomes and lower inflation were necessary to improve living standards.
Sodipo also called for greater scrutiny of state and local governments, arguing that higher public revenues would improve daily life only if officials used them effectively.
He said governors and council chairmen had responsibilities for delivering services and supporting development within communities. Federal efforts to create a stable economic environment, he argued, needed corresponding action at those levels.
The World Bank’s October Nigeria Development Update similarly identified the quality of state spending as an important factor in turning increased revenues into improved infrastructure and services. It reported real economic growth of 4.2 per cent in the first half of 2026, while noting that inflation continued to weaken household purchasing power.
The presenters challenged Sodipo to identify a reform that had directly benefited an ordinary low-income family, excluding the Nigerian Education Loan Fund.
He first cited petrol subsidy removal and what he described as improved fuel availability. When the presenters questioned his description of petrol prices as stable, he emphasised the absence of scarcity as the principal benefit he wished to highlight.
Sodipo also referred to government payments to vulnerable Nigerians, although he warned that excessive cash injections could add to inflationary pressure.
Offering his own business as an example, he said he had continued employing workers through the reform period and argued that business growth could support household incomes through wages.
That argument prompted further questions about access to credit. The presenters asked how smaller businesses could expand when high interest rates made borrowing expensive.
Sodipo responded by pointing to exchange-rate reforms, investor confidence and the prospect of foreign financing. He argued that a more predictable foreign exchange market could encourage investors to fund Nigerian businesses.
He also credited reduced dependence on imported petrol with helping the country’s external position and said stronger domestic food production should become another priority.
The discussion then turned to whether the government had sufficient revenue to finance its commitments.
The presenters cited first-quarter budget figures showing that debt service absorbed approximately 91 per cent of federal revenue. They questioned how the administration intended to fund development while managing debt obligations, recurrent expenditure and overlapping budget implementation periods.
According to BusinessDay’s analysis of the Budget Office’s first-quarter 2026 report, the Federal Government collected ₦5.08 trillion against a quarterly target of ₦9.22 trillion and spent ₦4.63 trillion on debt service.
The same report recorded ₦1.69 trillion in capital releases during the quarter, although that amount fell substantially below the projected allocation. Revenue collection amounted to approximately 55 per cent of the quarterly target.
Sodipo accepted that debt-service costs required attention but argued that the use of borrowed funds deserved greater emphasis.
He maintained that “debt is not a problem for us right now” and referred to the International Monetary Fund’s assessment in defending the government’s position.
The IMF’s 2026 debt assessment placed Nigeria’s overall risk of sovereign stress at a moderate level. It also identified risks associated with weak revenue mobilisation and stressed the importance of revenue collection, expenditure control and stronger fiscal management.
On inflation, Sodipo defended the administration’s record and said the next programme aimed to bring the rate down to eight per cent by 2031. He separately identified six per cent annual economic growth as the government’s target.
The latest published September figures put headline inflation at 14.63 per cent, compared with 15.39 per cent in August. Food inflation stood at 19.59 per cent year on year, according to the National Bureau of Statistics report carried by Voice of Nigeria.
The presenters also questioned how changes to statistical base years and the inflation basket affected comparisons with earlier figures. They asked whether the reported improvements sufficiently reflected changes in people’s circumstances.
Sodipo rejected the suggestion that the gains could be explained solely by statistical adjustments. He cited tax receipts, non-oil exports and capital-market activity, and argued that domestic investors accounted for much of the activity in the market.
The presenters maintained that their central concern was how national growth translated into purchasing power and better conditions for ordinary Nigerians.
Electricity and agriculture formed another part of the exchange. Asked about the proposed 10,000-megawatt electricity target, and its relationship to a higher figure cited during the earlier campaign, Sodipo pointed to the expansion of state involvement in the power sector.
He said electricity supply and roads remained essential to business growth and agricultural development, while acknowledging that the government could improve its performance.
On food production, he called for greater support for farmers through fertiliser supplies and mechanisation. He also identified inadequate cold storage, produce waste and poor links between farms and urban markets as problems requiring attention.
Sodipo argued that reducing losses after harvest and improving access roads could help more food reach consumers. He said the administration needed to make those changes visible in daily life.
The 109-page APC document, titled From Reform to Prosperity Agenda 2027–2031, proposes facilitating 200,000 affordable homes and increasing available electricity generation towards 10,000 megawatts.
Its security commitments include recruiting, training and deploying 28,000 additional military personnel already approved for recruitment, alongside plans to train and deploy 50,000 police officers.
The manifesto also targets functional services at at least 90 per cent of primary healthcare centres by 2031 and presents the proposed second term as a period for translating economic reforms into improvements in household welfare.